trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -4.4% | -13.5% | 14% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -2.0% | -11.3% | 36% | 9% | -10.3% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -2.0% | -11.3% | 36% | 9% | -10.3% |
| all | 19 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 47% | 11% | -14.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.9% | 11% | -14.5% |
| 10% | -19.4% | 5% | -22.6% |
| 15% | -27.2% | 5% | -30.1% |
| 20% | -34.3% | 5% | -37.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 84¢ | 86¢ | $8 | $9 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 21 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 21 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? | Jun 20 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $33 | $0 | -1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 18 | $2 | −$1 | -30% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 17 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 26 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 25 | $1 | $0 | +13% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 25 | $34 | −$2 | -6% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 24 | $37 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Georgescu banned from Romania election? | Mar 20 | $32 | −$31 | -95% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on March 5? | Mar 04 | $18 | +$14 | +77% |
| Will PSV Eindhoven vs. Arsenal end in a draw? | Mar 04 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump issue an executive order on March 4? | Mar 04 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 21-28? | Mar 04 | $17 | +$1 | +4% |