Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:07:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

77
0x77c8…bc8c
sports · 286 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$147,774 -87%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$155,589 · open +$2,841
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$24,223
Realized−$155,589
Unrealized+$2,841
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses54 / 460
Whale WR (big bets)13%
Est. fees paid−$2,045
Open positions40
Markets (closed)514 / 286
History coverage22d
Avg bet$593
Trades / day157.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 40 History 514 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$147,482
7 days−$150,794
14 days−$145,164
30 days−$155,589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 29¢ 75¢ $1,509 $3,867 +$2,357 (+156%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 14¢ 84¢ $464 $2,833 +$2,369 (+511%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 42¢ 90¢ $1,315 $2,806 +$1,491 (+113%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $1,980 $1,785 −$195 (-10%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 31¢ 77¢ $700 $1,713 +$1,013 (+145%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,630 $1,581 −$49 (-3%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $855 $1,150 +$295 (+34%)
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No 11¢ 19¢ $570 $945 +$375 (+66%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 11¢ 18¢ $454 $783 +$329 (+72%)
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? No 48¢ 78¢ $460 $747 +$287 (+62%)
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No 46¢ 84¢ $410 $746 +$336 (+82%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No 17¢ 29¢ $436 $744 +$308 (+71%)
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 18¢ 79¢ $163 $703 +$540 (+331%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $750 $583 −$167 (-22%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $660 $525 −$135 (-20%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 28¢ 6¢ $2,171 $433 −$1,738 (-80%)
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? No 47¢ 68¢ $250 $364 +$114 (+46%)
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $650 $325 −$325 (-50%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $520 $250 −$270 (-52%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $149 $219 +$70 (+47%)
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? No 18¢ 12¢ $304 $192 −$112 (-37%)
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No 24¢ 62¢ $69 $178 +$110 (+159%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 24¢ 26¢ $165 $175 +$10 (+6%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 16¢ $200 $165 −$35 (-17%)
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026? No 14¢ 50¢ $29 $102 +$73 (+251%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$2,577 +1678787%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Exact Score: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0 - 0 Wolverhampton Wanderers F Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $547 −$547 -100%
Exact Score: Paris FC 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Jun 12 $114 −$114 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $886 −$886 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 12 $466 −$466 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 12 $260 −$260 -100%
AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $290 −$290 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $68 −$68 -100%
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $1,003 −$943 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$103 -98442%
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $942 −$942 -100%
RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $215 −$215 -100%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 0 - 0 Crystal Palace FC? Jun 12 $368 −$368 -100%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $694 −$694 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $643 −$380 -59%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Jun 12 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 12 $177 −$177 -100%
Real Racing Club vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $170 −$170 -100%
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CA Juventud: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $370 −$370 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
CD Castellón vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
AD Ceuta FC vs. Málaga CF: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $540 −$540 -100%
CD Castellón vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $646 −$646 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $171 −$171 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,214 −$1,214 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Jun 12 $516 −$516 -100%
Exact Score: Al Ittihad Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club? Jun 12 $211 −$211 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $750 −$750 -100%
Randers FC vs. Odense BK: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $1,289 −$1,289 -100%
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,527 −$1,527 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15 Jun 12 $323 −$323 -100%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $307 −$307 -100%
1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,301 −$1,301 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 48% −$9,590
other 36% −$7,521
world 7% +$493
crypto 7% +$10,900
politics 2% +$76
tech 0% −$579
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $151 30m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $86 30m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $95 32m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 32m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 32m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 32m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 32m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 32m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 32m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 32m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 32m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 32m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $32 32m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 32m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 32m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 32m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 32m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 32m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 32m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 32m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $78 49m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 49m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 49m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 49m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $696 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $34 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-61.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 343 -82.5% -84.1% 4% 3% -91.7%
≤30d 514 -57.9% -61.9% 11% 10% -62.2%
≤90d 514 -57.9% -61.9% 11% 10% -62.2%
all 514 -57.9% -61.9% 11% 10% -62.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover157.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -61.9% 10% -62.2%
10% -65.6% 10% -65.8%
15% ← realistic here -68.9% 9% -69.1%
20% -71.9% 9% -72.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,222.94 · official $24,221.28 (match) · 3500 history records