Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x77c6…85b9 sports 115 markets active 0h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,921 (+13%) realized +$6,227 · open −$306
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%47W / 65L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$408per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$165est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$700now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$600
7 days−$600
14 days−$371
30 days+$506
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$5,922
other 1% −$370
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -33.0% -39.3% 33% 33% -22.4%
≤30d 35 -23.8% -31.1% 40% 40% -2.9%
≤90d 45 -10.2% -18.7% 47% 47% +12.6%
all 112 -18.6% -26.3% 42% 41% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 41% +2.0%
10% -33.4% 40% -7.7%
15% -39.8% 38% -16.7%
20% -45.7% 36% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$450 vs −$236 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$700
Realized+$6,227
Unrealized−$306
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses47 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$165
Open positions3
Markets (closed)112 / 115
History coverage231d
Avg bet$408
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Nigma Galaxy 61¢ 69¢ $547 $616 +$69 (+13%)
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) Nigma Galaxy 48¢ 41¢ $99 $84 −$15 (-15%)
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Virtus.pro 63¢ $360 $0 −$360 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $404 −$17 -4%
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Jun 28 $354 +$256 +72%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $424 +$342 +81%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $376 −$370 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $203 −$200 -98%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $101 +$68 +67%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 27 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $406 +$335 +83%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $405 +$322 +79%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $102 +$111 +109%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $365 −$360 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 −$41 -80%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $148 −$145 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $254 −$251 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $296 +$230 +78%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $41 +$30 +73%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $495 +$157 +32%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $562 +$518 +92%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $101 +$87 +86%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $103 +$175 +171%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $324 +$227 +70%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $280 +$166 +59%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $92 −$90 -97%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $225 −$221 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 04 $27 −$26 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 204.5 Jun 04 $24 −$24 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 04 $49 −$48 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 Jun 04 $17 −$17 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 Jun 04 $21 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Jun 04 $23 −$22 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $356 +$212 +60%
Dota 2: OG vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $298 +$285 +96%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $696 +$987 +142%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $302 −$302 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $222 +$182 +82%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 13 $353 +$191 +54%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 08 $88 +$112 +127%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5 May 08 $93 +$107 +114%
Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5) Mar 30 $587 +$780 +133%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham Playo Mar 30 $2,417 +$1,717 +71%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 29 $500 −$499 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) Mar 29 $1,991 −$1,987 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 29 $143 −$141 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 34¢ $51 13m
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) BUY Nigma Galaxy 50¢ $27 19m
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) BUY Nigma Galaxy 50¢ $20 19m
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) BUY Nigma Galaxy 50¢ $3 21m
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) BUY Nigma Galaxy 48¢ $3 26m
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) BUY Nigma Galaxy 48¢ $24 35m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 66¢ $180 46m
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) BUY Nigma Galaxy 46¢ $23 49m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 67¢ $321 56m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $387 58m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 60¢ $61 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 64¢ $303 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $404 9h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Jordan 58¢ $26 12h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Jordan 58¢ $148 12h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Jordan 58¢ $52 12h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Jordan 58¢ $28 12h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Jordan 58¢ $49 12h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Jordan 58¢ $14 12h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Jordan 58¢ $11 12h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Jordan 58¢ $11 12h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Jordan 58¢ $9 12h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Jordan 29¢ $19 12h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Jordan 60¢ $6 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Jordan 33¢ $204 13h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Jordan 57¢ $405 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 44¢ $376 15h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 45¢ $203 22h
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY New Zealand 52¢ $101 34h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $699.87 · official $699.96 (match) · 408 history records