Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:03:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77c4…d390 sports 507 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$464 (-2%) realized −$450 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%274W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days−$73
14 days+$200
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$360
other 15% −$174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +9.1% -1.3% 45% 45% -17.5%
≤30d 57 +9.8% -0.6% 51% 51% -6.6%
≤90d 129 -0.5% -9.9% 50% 49% -23.4%
all 505 +0.6% -9.0% 54% 54% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 54% -11.7%
10% -17.7% 51% -20.1%
15% -25.7% 45% -27.9%
20% -32.9% 38% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$33 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$450
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses274 / 231
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions2
Markets (closed)505 / 507
History coverage196d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 505 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 57¢ 44¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Korea Republic 31¢ 12¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 25 $57 −$2 -4%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $37 +$22 +60%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $40 −$2 -5%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 24 $45 +$8 +18%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $61 +$28 +46%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $49 +$13 +26%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $63 −$32 -51%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $31 −$1 -3%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $44 +$17 +38%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $23 +$20 +86%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $7 +$8 +109%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $59 −$52 -88%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $49 +$10 +21%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $49 −$35 -71%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 +$11 +23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 +$61 +596%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $42 −$1 -3%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $47 −$46 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 +$20 +48%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 16 $46 +$34 +74%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 16 $47 −$2 -4%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $92 +$24 +26%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $36 +$56 +158%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $51 +$31 +62%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $4 +$2 +57%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $33 +$21 +62%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 13 $43 +$24 +57%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $72 +$34 +48%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $74 −$2 -2%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 12 $41 +$32 +79%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$48 +158%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 11 $32 +$20 +62%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 11 $23 +$12 +50%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 09 $3 +$1 +44%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 08 $2 +$1 +50%
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Jun 07 $49 +$56 +114%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $33 −$3 -8%
Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $60 −$51 -85%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 Jun 06 $45 +$18 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 04 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $31 +$14 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 31¢ $3 1h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) SELL South Africa 69¢ $3 1h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY South Africa 70¢ $4 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) SELL Czechia 88¢ $55 1h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Czechia 89¢ $57 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 56¢ $48 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $37 12h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 47¢ $38 12h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 48¢ $40 12h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 84¢ $45 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $61 36h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $49 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $31 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $31 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $32 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $44 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $23 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $7 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $7 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $59 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $49 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $49 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $50 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $62 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.35 · official $39.35 (match) · 1142 history records