Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:58:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

77
0x77c3…c015
other · 96 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$3 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses24 / 71
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage334d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 1 History 95 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $195 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $48 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $166 +$5 +3%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $35 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $96 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $94 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $134 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $55 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $55 +$7 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $43 +$2 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $46 −$4 -8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $46 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $9 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $3 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $106 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $104 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $38 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $86 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $175 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $115 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $106 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $79 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 28% +$9
other 26% −$2
politics 18% $0
sports 15% +$1
crypto 5% −$5
economics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $52 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 7h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $20 11h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $52 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $34 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $26 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $8 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $6 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $42 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $48 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $34 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $5 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $9 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $48 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $28 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $28 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $21 8d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $21 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $47 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $47 8d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $35 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 23 +0.3% -9.3% 39% 4% -8.8%
≤90d 78 -0.8% -10.2% 27% 1% -9.4%
all 95 -0.7% -10.2% 25% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.23 · official $0.00 (match) · 355 history records