Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77c0…262d politics 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$1
other 18% $0
world 17% $0
economics 14% $0
sports 10% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 4% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 -0.9% -10.3% 56% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 -0.7% -10.1% 55% 0% -9.4%
all 40 -2.7% -11.9% 38% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage297d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $4 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $4 $0 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $31 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $15 −$1 -5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $10 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $12 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 13 $33 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 13 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in August 2025? Sep 02 $13 −$1 -5%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Irfaan Ali win the 2025 Guyana presidential election? Sep 02 $1 $0 -35%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 27 $38 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 27 $7 $0 -6%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 26 $1 $0 -37%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 4h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $24 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $22 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $16 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 95¢ $11 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $11 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $12 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $19 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $31 26d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 27d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 27d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $3 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 5¢ $2 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 5¢ $1 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 5¢ $1 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $12 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $12 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $32 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $32 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records