Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:52:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
77 0x77bc…1888 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$77 (-13%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$96
14 days+$95
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$142
other 32% +$24
crypto 21% −$61
world 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +30.3% +17.9% 50% 50% +42.4%
≤30d 21 +25.6% +13.7% 52% 52% +8.5%
≤90d 21 +25.6% +13.7% 52% 52% +8.5%
all 21 +25.6% +13.7% 52% 52% +8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.7% 52% +8.5%
10% +2.8% 52% -1.9%
15% -7.1% 52% -11.4%
20% -16.3% 52% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$22 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 27
History coverage238d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists Jun 21 $10 +$29 +284%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $25 +$39 +154%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $25 +$43 +168%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$23 +91%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$22 +106%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$23 +114%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$29 +142%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$17 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $10 +$19 +186%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $34 +$38 +114%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $49 +$34 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY 43¢ $25 18h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 44¢ $25 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 39¢ $25 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 37¢ $25 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 52¢ $25 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Portugal vs. DR Congo BUY 47¢ $20 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 48¢ $20 6d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 41¢ $20 7d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 7d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $20 7d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belg BUY 24¢ $20 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 10d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $15 11d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 35¢ $15 11d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 34¢ $10 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 11d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $34 11d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $49 12d
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands BUY Yes 45¢ $100 237d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.22 · official $35.22 (match) · 46 history records