Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:19:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

77
0x77ba…9ed8
weather · 707 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$257 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$184 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$149
Realized+$184
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses682 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)697 / 707
History coverage76d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day37.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 10 History 697 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days−$537
14 days−$430
30 days−$347
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 11? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? No 98¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $1,000 −$6 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $303 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $199 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $191 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $303 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $505 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $402 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $302 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 14 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $206 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $505 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $886 +$119 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $207 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 14 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $308 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $407 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $47 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$158
sports 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $100 24m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $125 51m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $185 52m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $185 52m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $9 52m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $490 52m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $500 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $285 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $493 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $505 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $89 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $88 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $367 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $500 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 +0.4% -9.1% 96% 1% -10.6%
≤30d 412 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 697 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 1% -9.4%
all 697 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover37.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 1% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.97 · official $148.00 (match) · 3500 history records