Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:17:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
77 0x77b8…0650 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$226 (-11%) realized −$192 · open −$34
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days+$276
14 days+$276
30 days+$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$257
world 34% −$487
sports 16% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -2.1% -11.5% 50% 50% +15.3%
≤30d 12 -2.1% -11.5% 50% 50% +15.3%
≤90d 13 -8.1% -16.9% 46% 46% -21.9%
all 14 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 50% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 50% -20.8%
10% -22.8% 50% -28.4%
15% -30.3% 43% -35.3%
20% -37.1% 29% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$99 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized−$192
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage109d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $237 $195 −$42 (-18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $57 $65 +$8 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$12 +60%
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $269 −$14 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $139 +$69 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 −$2 -17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $91 −$90 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$142 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$168 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $98 +$41 +42%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $55 −$55 -99%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Mar 21 $629 −$501 -80%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 03 $55 +$14 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $20 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 7h
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes $21 7h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 61¢ $124 7h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $131 8h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 61¢ $131 13h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $138 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $139 40h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $11 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over $2 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $14 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $9 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $92 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $294 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $270 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $98 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $48 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $58 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $55 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $152 6d
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $128 89d
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 99d
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $31 103d
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 103d
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.39 · official $260.39 (match) · 45 history records