Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:30:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
77 0x77b5…9170 other 483 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,094 (+79%) realized +$8,177 · open −$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate75%334W / 109L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,576now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 83d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$760
politics 17% +$133
weather 14% +$219
tech 6% +$19
world 5% −$12
sports 5% −$26
crypto 2% +$25
culture 1% −$1
economics 0% +$87
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +43.3% +29.6% 41% 17% -10.9%
≤30d 51 +42.6% +29.0% 47% 20% -10.6%
≤90d 443 +45.4% +31.6% 75% 35% +2.4%
all 443 +45.4% +31.6% 75% 35% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +31.6% 35% +2.4%
10% ← realistic here +19.0% 27% -7.4%
15% +7.5% 22% -16.3%
20% -3.1% 17% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +57% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.76 per $1 lost it wins $4.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$1,576
Realized+$8,177
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses334 / 109
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions492
Markets (closed)443 / 483
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 492 History 443 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B? No 73¢ 64¢ $75 $66 −$9 (-12%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $60 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 American League Championship Series? No 82¢ 80¢ $57 $55 −$2 (-3%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Buffalo Bills next? No 96¢ 100¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+4%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $45 $42 −$3 (-6%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 76¢ 76¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $38 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? No 76¢ 74¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-3%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,500-$7,000 in December? No 89¢ 84¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No 76¢ 79¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+4%)
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? No 66¢ 64¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day? No 97¢ 97¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? No 93¢ 100¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+7%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,000-$6,500 in December? No 89¢ 88¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sam Surridge win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? No 86¢ 78¢ $29 $26 −$2 (-9%)
Will Robert Lulgjuraj be the Republican Nominee for MI-10? No 88¢ 84¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-4%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House No 64¢ 62¢ $24 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? No 79¢ 58¢ $26 $19 −$7 (-27%)
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 61¢ 61¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? No 94¢ 93¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 21¢ 18¢ $21 $18 −$4 (-17%)
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? No 68¢ 58¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? Jun 27 $172 −$4 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 27? Jun 27 $40 −$8 -19%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 27 $65 −$2 -3%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 27 $125 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 27? Jun 27 $18 −$8 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 27? Jun 27 $6 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpic Jun 27 $175 −$28 -16%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 27? Jun 27 $15 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $166 −$8 -5%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 27 $24 −$8 -32%
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 Jun 27 $20 −$8 -42%
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian S Jun 27 $7 +$3 +38%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $48 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 27 $60 $0 +0%
Neutrl FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 27 $4 $0 +0%
Hotstuff FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 27 $28 $0 -0%
Cap FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 27 $4 −$3 -72%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da Jun 27 $99 +$1 +1%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 27 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Jun 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary Jun 27 $34 $0 +1%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a Jun 27 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $0 +$10 +4902%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $40 $0 +0%
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? Jun 26 $75 $0 -0%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $14 +$9 +64%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 26 $26 +$24 +96%
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Electio Jun 24 $22 −$2 -7%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $11 −$4 -38%
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Jun 24 $13 −$3 -25%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe Jun 24 $99 +$1 +1%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 23 $11 −$8 -68%
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will David Trone be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 23 $116 −$4 -4%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by mor Jun 23 $1 $0 +40%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 23 $134 −$13 -10%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 23 $93 −$5 -6%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 23 $4 +$4 +81%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 22 $49 $0 +0%
Will Quincy Bareebe be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 22 $3 $0 +10%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 22 $117 −$12 -10%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $90 +$31 +35%
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the People Power Party win 2 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 Jun 04 $3 +$5 +159%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? SELL Yes 84¢ $21 3m
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? SELL Yes 84¢ $22 3m
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? SELL Yes 84¢ $125 3m
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m BUY Yes 26¢ $8 5m
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 27? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 27? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 8m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 27? SELL Yes 63¢ $15 10m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 64¢ $63 15m
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? BUY Yes 86¢ $172 16m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 64¢ $65 19m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 27? SELL Yes 66¢ $17 23m
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? BUY No 66¢ $23 25m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 27? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 25m
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m? BUY No 66¢ $10 27m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 27? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 30m
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 52¢ $130 39m
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $125 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15? BUY No 10¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 27? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 1h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL No 28¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 27? SELL No 17¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 27? SELL No 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 27? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 27? SELL No 21¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 27? SELL No 21¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpic SELL UNO MILLE 55¢ $94 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 27? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 27? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpic SELL UNO MILLE 69¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,575.99 · official $1,446.06 · 3500 history records