Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
77 0x77b5…45df other 176 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+5%) realized +$53 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate47%47W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$60
14 days+$45
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$47
world 26% +$1
politics 14% −$19
tech 9% −$1
finance 5% +$2
sports 4% −$20
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +24.2% +12.4% 55% 38% +17.3%
≤30d 101 +2.2% -7.6% 47% 29% -3.0%
≤90d 101 +2.2% -7.6% 47% 29% -3.0%
all 101 +2.2% -7.6% 47% 29% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 29% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 22% -12.3%
15% -24.5% 16% -20.8%
20% -31.9% 10% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$53
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses47 / 54
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions75
Markets (closed)101 / 176
History coverage19d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 75 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 76¢ 98¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+30%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 78¢ 97¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+24%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No 60¢ 72¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+20%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 81¢ 99¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+22%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 74¢ 85¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? No 80¢ 93¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 79¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 74¢ 73¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 65¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 63¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 81¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 74¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-33%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 23¢ 39¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+69%)
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 50¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 -22%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +46%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +53%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? Jun 15 $6 $0 +8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $5 +$23 +468%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +228%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -26%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $3 +$24 +881%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $6 −$2 -26%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -33%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 13 $0 $0 -96%
Will Anthropic have the third highest private market valuation on June Jun 13 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +72%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $6 +$3 +59%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -16%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +20%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $9 −$2 -26%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +156%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 17m
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 2h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 64¢ $3 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 4h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 4h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 4h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 97¢ $1 4h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 93¢ $2 6h
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 6h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 65¢ $3 7h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 7h
Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027? BUY No 40¢ $3 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $3 8h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $2 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $4 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $3 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2 12h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 66¢ $1 14h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 70¢ $2 16h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY Yes 21¢ $1 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 17h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 18h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 28¢ $1 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $4 20h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.60 · official $205.44 (match) · 496 history records