Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:30:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77af…7b28 crypto 298 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$361 (+10%) realized +$245 · open +$116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate25%74W / 221L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day61.4pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$634now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days+$162
14 days+$121
30 days+$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$370
crypto 36% −$49
other 20% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 -21.8% -29.2% 25% 19% +2.2%
≤30d 295 -16.3% -24.3% 25% 22% -1.3%
≤90d 295 -16.3% -24.3% 25% 22% -1.3%
all 295 -16.3% -24.3% 25% 22% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.3% 22% -1.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.5% 21% -10.8%
15% -38.1% 19% -19.4%
20% -44.2% 18% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$5 · ×3.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$634
Realized+$245
Unrealized+$116
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses74 / 221
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)295 / 298
History coverage17d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day61.4
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 295 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Under 66¢ 90¢ $258 $351 +$94 (+36%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 66¢ $130 $167 +$37 (+28%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $130 $115 −$15 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 216 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 22 $133 −$96 -72%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $218 +$53 +24%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $66 −$32 -49%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $45 −$23 -52%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $136 +$166 +122%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $136 −$74 -54%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $271 +$74 +27%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $135 +$86 +64%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 +$18 +41%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $46 +$46 +100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $46 −$23 -51%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $46 −$23 -48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $46 +$29 +64%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $46 +$63 +137%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $45 −$22 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$3 +105%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$6 +526%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $133 51m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $99 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $26 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $133 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $133 1h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 12¢ $37 2h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 40¢ $133 3h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 66¢ $132 3h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $130 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $187 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $34 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 33¢ $65 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $130 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 32¢ $9 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $66 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 32¢ $9 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $88 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 14¢ $58 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $136 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $136 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $62 28h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $136 29h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $136 30h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $135 33h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 45h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $46 46h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 31¢ $21 47h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 5¢ $22 2d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 10¢ $46 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $633.60 · official $633.60 (match) · 1094 history records