Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77ae…8d6f crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$6 (-11%) realized +$13 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$19
sports 38% +$20
crypto 10% −$2
weather 9% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-60.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +100.8% +81.6% 100% 100% +81.6%
≤30d 1 +100.8% +81.6% 100% 100% +81.6%
≤90d 7 -56.1% -60.3% 29% 14% +33.3%
all 7 -56.1% -60.3% 29% 14% +33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.3% 14% +33.3%
10% -64.1% 14% +20.5%
15% -67.5% 14% +8.9%
20% -70.7% 14% -1.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt +47% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×7.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.09 per $1 lost it wins $3.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage52d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $22 $3 −$19 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$20 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 27 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 27 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 27? Apr 27 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 28? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 28? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.56 · official $3.62 · 17 history records