Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77ad…ba8a sports 340 markets active 0h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,767 (-8%) realized −$11,758 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%128W / 201L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$435per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$484est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,550now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,434
7 days+$2,169
14 days+$2,896
30 days+$3,356
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$6,760
other 34% −$3,806
politics 6% −$922
crypto 1% +$312
culture 0% +$22
tech 0% −$259
world 0% −$120
economics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +35.1% +22.2% 50% 45% +5.7%
≤30d 102 +86.8% +69.0% 42% 39% -1.3%
≤90d 138 +50.5% +36.2% 38% 34% -4.8%
all 329 +13.7% +2.9% 39% 31% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 31% -18.2%
10% -6.9% 26% -26.0%
15% -15.9% 22% -33.2%
20% -24.2% 19% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$211 vs −$194 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$1,550
Realized−$11,758
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses128 / 201
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$484
Open positions10
Markets (closed)329 / 340
History coverage278d
Avg bet$435
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 329 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? No 69¢ 76¢ $845 $931 +$87 (+10%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 17¢ 12¢ $381 $252 −$129 (-34%)
Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $109 $157 +$47 (+43%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $79 $70 −$9 (-11%)
Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $56 $69 +$13 (+24%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $49 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $14 $9 −$4 (-33%)
Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+405%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-75%)
Will Zaļo un Zemnieku Savienība (ZZS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $457 −$446 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $139 −$13 -9%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $67 −$65 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,008 +$41 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $51 +$50 +97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $1,004 −$775 -77%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $305 −$70 -23%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $72 +$54 +75%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $136 −$132 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $69 +$31 +46%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $27 +$73 +276%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $113 +$87 +76%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,263 −$1,259 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $95 +$5 +5%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $67 +$33 +50%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $124 +$111 +90%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $564 +$193 +34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $85 −$84 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $114 −$109 -96%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 +$30 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,083 +$1,655 +80%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $109 +$91 +83%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 14 $59 +$41 +70%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $175 +$25 +14%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $26 −$24 -94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$24 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $381 −$374 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $94 −$92 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $228 −$12 -5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $515 +$168 +33%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$10 +363%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,663 +$1,060 +64%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $162 −$158 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $847 +$173 +20%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $345 +$86 +25%
Will Nacionālā Apvienība (NA) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian p Jun 11 $62 −$9 -14%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,533 +$557 +36%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $268 +$1,320 +493%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $441 +$3 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $236 +$164 +70%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $256 −$20 -8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $54 −$50 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 1¢ $6 2m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 12¢ $70 3m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 14¢ $1 3m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 22¢ $119 4m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 38¢ $128 4m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 29¢ $21 4m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $43 5m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $28 5m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $62 6m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $2 6m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 43¢ $81 6m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 18¢ $5 10m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 20¢ $88 10m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 17¢ $102 12m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 17¢ $1 12m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $14 18m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 18m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $33 18m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 19m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 19¢ $18 19m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 19¢ $18 19m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 17¢ $5 19m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 23¢ $24 19m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 48¢ $125 19m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 41¢ $104 34m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 56¢ $123 54m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 18¢ $115 55m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 18¢ $17 59m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 18¢ $24 59m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 28¢ $39 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,549.57 · official $1,549.57 (match) · 3396 history records