Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:39:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77ad…82bd other 309 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$948 (-1%) realized −$933 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate55%164W / 133L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$793now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$1,398
14 days−$1,347
30 days−$1,184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$107
weather 9% −$51
crypto 7% +$9
world 1% −$727
politics 0% −$91
culture 0% $0
sports 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -70.4% -73.2% 14% 11% -63.3%
≤30d 141 -42.6% -48.1% 26% 15% -26.5%
≤90d 187 -32.9% -39.3% 40% 14% -13.3%
all 297 -18.6% -26.3% 55% 11% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 11% -10.5%
10% -33.4% 8% -19.0%
15% -39.8% 8% -26.9%
20% -45.7% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$793
Realized−$933
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses164 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)297 / 309
History coverage213d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? No 92¢ 90¢ $275 $268 −$6 (-2%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $199 $199 +$0 (+0%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $198 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? No 78¢ 78¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? No 70¢ 69¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $11 $15 +$3 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-44%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-52%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +69%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +114%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$3 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $694 −$550 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$45 +448%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$11 +140%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $18 +$3 +15%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $198 −$178 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $201 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$23 +118%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $58 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $155 +$20 +13%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $45 +$5 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 9AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 29? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 6? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 7? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 21? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $91 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 68¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 78¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $185 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $792.53 · official $792.53 (match) · 990 history records