Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:31:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
77 0x77ac…1bf6 sports 185 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,952 (-3%) realized −$2,876 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%105W / 78L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$495per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$1,063est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days−$2,122
14 days−$9,532
30 days−$3,973
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,573
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -16.0% -24.0% 60% 44% -25.5%
≤30d 155 -10.1% -18.7% 56% 48% -13.4%
≤90d 183 -6.6% -15.5% 57% 49% -12.6%
all 183 -6.6% -15.5% 57% 49% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 49% -12.6%
10% -23.5% 39% -21.0%
15% -30.9% 25% -28.6%
20% -37.7% 13% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$607) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$247 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized−$2,876
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses105 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,063
Open positions2
Markets (closed)183 / 185
History coverage34d
Avg bet$495
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner FURIA 49¢ 52¢ $180 $194 +$14 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner FURIA 22¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $293 +$116 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $193 −$191 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $201 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$80 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $382 +$31 +8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $201 −$7 -4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$22 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $201 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $197 +$31 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $195 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $161 +$34 +21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $97 +$11 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $75 +$6 +8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,595 −$1,590 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,501 +$94 +6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,915 −$242 -8%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $213 +$102 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $751 +$188 +25%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$95 -93%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $604 +$360 +60%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $517 +$91 +18%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $439 +$75 +17%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $876 −$869 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $74 −$27 -36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 $0 +30%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,707 −$770 -45%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $878 −$211 -24%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,740 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $4,095 −$3,059 -75%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $3,232 +$841 +26%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $609 −$508 -83%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $3,066 +$1,195 +39%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2,803 +$260 +9%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $2,306 +$499 +22%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2,016 +$292 +14%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,599 +$201 +13%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $656 −$217 -33%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $340 −$72 -21%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $286 −$202 -71%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $203 +$189 +93%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,916 +$209 +11%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,611 +$317 +20%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $62 −$13 -21%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,009 +$28 +3%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $407 +$539 +133%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $203 −$66 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 49¢ $183 5m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 22¢ $93 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 15¢ $92 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 65¢ $408 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $408 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 71¢ $293 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $193 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $188 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 75¢ $201 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $281 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 71¢ $202 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 98¢ $228 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 80¢ $185 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 77¢ $185 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 80¢ $197 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 80¢ $194 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 82¢ $201 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 76¢ $22 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 14¢ $15 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $201 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $229 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 85¢ $197 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $197 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 98¢ $195 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $195 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 82¢ $161 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $60 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 90¢ $54 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $54 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.62 · official $194.62 (match) · 547 history records