Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:40:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77ac…5750 sports 137 markets active 0h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,473 (+6%) realized +$3,473 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate42%57W / 80L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$435per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days−$178
14 days−$178
30 days−$362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$2,806
other 4% −$38
world 0% −$17
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -7.2% -16.1% 39% 11% -11.4%
≤30d 44 -10.2% -18.7% 34% 9% -12.8%
≤90d 54 -9.3% -17.9% 33% 7% -12.3%
all 137 -9.1% -17.7% 42% 20% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 20% -4.4%
10% -25.6% 11% -13.6%
15% -32.8% 7% -21.9%
20% -39.4% 5% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$501) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$66 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,473
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses57 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage178d
Avg bet$435
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $509 −$279 -55%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $504 −$389 -77%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,308 +$112 +9%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $500 +$10 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $292 +$156 +53%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $507 +$76 +15%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $501 +$19 +4%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $505 +$13 +2%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $225 −$19 -8%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $501 +$26 +5%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $501 +$13 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $2 $0 -14%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $321 +$41 +13%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $221 +$8 +4%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $209 −$3 -1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $311 +$92 +30%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $319 +$17 +5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $126 −$17 -13%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $239 +$11 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $318 $0 -0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $209 +$3 +2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $141 −$7 -5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 −$3 -16%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$2 -15%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $40 −$1 -2%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 16 $40 −$2 -4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 13 $41 −$22 -55%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$2 -12%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $40 −$21 -52%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $40 $0 -1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 -3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 $0 -12%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw? May 30 $58 −$25 -43%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $280 −$149 -53%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC end in a draw? May 23 $95 −$10 -10%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-20? May 19 $6 $0 -6%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? May 19 $5 $0 -8%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-20? May 19 $5 $0 -7%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $356 +$14 +4%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $198 +$14 +7%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $3 $0 -12%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC end in a draw? Apr 22 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $16 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 18¢ $225 2m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $115 2m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $272 2m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $504 4m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $504 4m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $450 4m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $505 7m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $443 7m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $683 7m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $495 8m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $287 8m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $366 8m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $574 24m
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $515 24m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $508 24m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $201 24m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $495 25m
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $496 25m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 86¢ $497 25m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $219 25m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $27 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $522 1h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? SELL Yes 99¢ $508 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $461 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $26 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $487 1h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 96¢ $496 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $496 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 30¢ $5 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $5 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1128 history records