Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
77 0x77aa…6648 sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$23 (+7%) realized +$41 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%23W / 18L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$47
14 days+$47
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$43
other 31% −$8
world 19% −$13
tech 4% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +33.1% +20.4% 58% 58% +32.1%
≤30d 41 +16.2% +5.2% 56% 54% +5.2%
≤90d 41 +16.2% +5.2% 56% 54% +5.2%
all 41 +16.2% +5.2% 56% 54% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.2% 54% +5.2%
10% -4.9% 54% -4.8%
15% -14.1% 51% -14.0%
20% -22.5% 44% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$41
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses23 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)41 / 47
History coverage28d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-88%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 32¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$21 +102%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $4 +$2 +42%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$3 +124%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +109%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$4 +344%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $12 −$3 -25%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +158%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$7 +140%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $11 +$16 +147%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $5 +$6 +109%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? May 31 $4 −$4 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $10 +$4 +43%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $8 +$10 +129%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 24 $5 +$2 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $5 +$5 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mercedes get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Middlesbrough achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the May 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 19 $10 +$9 +93%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $5 +$5 +93%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? May 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 56m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 56m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 56m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 14h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $3 14h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $5 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 43¢ $2 29h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 60¢ $3 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $2 41h
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY No 24¢ $1 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO SELL No 29¢ $3 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO SELL No 33¢ $6 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $5 2d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 49¢ $3 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 22¢ $1 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 44¢ $2 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 70¢ $4 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 11¢ $1 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $10 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $5 5d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $1 6d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? BUY No 20¢ $5 6d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 6d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $5 6d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 47¢ $5 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.89 · official $41.89 (match) · 88 history records