trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 24 | +33.1% | +20.4% | 58% | 58% | +32.1% |
| ≤30d | 41 | +16.2% | +5.2% | 56% | 54% | +5.2% |
| ≤90d | 41 | +16.2% | +5.2% | 56% | 54% | +5.2% |
| all | 41 | +16.2% | +5.2% | 56% | 54% | +5.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +5.2% | 54% | +5.2% |
| 10% | -4.9% | 54% | -4.8% |
| 15% | -14.1% | 51% | -14.0% |
| 20% | -22.5% | 44% | -22.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | $16 | $16 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $11 | $11 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 7¢ | $8 | $8 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 27¢ | 26¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-2%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 63¢ | 8¢ | $15 | $2 | −$13 (-88%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | No | 32¢ | 3¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-90%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $3 | +$3 | +83% |
| Spread: Germany (-3.5) | Jun 14 | $5 | +$4 | +83% |
| Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $2 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $2 | +$3 | +129% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $20 | +$21 | +102% |
| Spread: Scotland (-1.5) | Jun 14 | $3 | +$2 | +65% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $2 | +$3 | +134% |
| Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) | Jun 13 | $4 | +$2 | +42% |
| Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) | Jun 13 | $2 | +$3 | +124% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $3 | +$3 | +109% |
| Spread: United States (-1.5) | Jun 13 | $1 | +$4 | +344% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO | Jun 12 | $12 | −$3 | -25% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Spread: Spurs (-5.5) | Jun 12 | $3 | −$3 | -98% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $2 | +$3 | +158% |
| Spread: Mexico (-1.5) | Jun 11 | $5 | +$7 | +140% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $11 | +$16 | +147% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | Jun 09 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? | Jun 09 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) | Jun 08 | $5 | +$6 | +109% |
| Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? | Jun 08 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Spread: Knicks (-2.5) | Jun 08 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? | May 31 | $5 | +$7 | +140% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | May 31 | $4 | −$4 | -98% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | May 31 | $10 | +$4 | +43% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 31 | $8 | +$10 | +129% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $9 | −$9 | -98% |
| Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League | May 24 | $5 | +$2 | +42% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | May 23 | $30 | +$1 | +2% |
| Spread: Knicks (-6.5) | May 22 | $5 | +$5 | +97% |
| Spread: Spurs (-2.5) | May 21 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Mercedes get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? | May 21 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? | May 21 | $10 | +$3 | +33% |
| Will Middlesbrough achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the | May 20 | $15 | −$15 | -99% |
| Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) | May 19 | $10 | +$9 | +93% |
| Spread: Knicks (-7.5) | May 19 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Spread: Thunder (-6.5) | May 19 | $5 | +$5 | +93% |
| Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? | May 18 | $5 | −$5 | -95% |
| Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? | May 18 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |