Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:46:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77a9…6bb5 sports 337 markets active 8h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$33 (-0%) realized −$32 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate54%179W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$119
crypto 25% +$48
other 21% +$8
world 8% +$16
politics 3% +$1
economics 2% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +2.8% -7.0% 52% 29% -7.9%
≤30d 57 +0.3% -9.3% 56% 21% -6.5%
≤90d 177 -0.5% -10.0% 53% 15% -10.1%
all 334 -1.7% -11.1% 54% 9% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 9% -10.1%
10% -19.6% 5% -18.7%
15% -27.4% 2% -26.5%
20% -34.5% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses179 / 155
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)334 / 337
History coverage165d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $103 $104 +$2 (+2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 81¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 17 $38 +$1 +3%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $17 $0 -2%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $35 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $36 +$6 +16%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $37 +$4 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 15 $22 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $24 +$3 +12%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $6 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $24 +$2 +7%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $22 +$3 +12%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $12 +$2 +13%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 −$4 -4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 12 $16 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 11 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $34 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 10 $25 −$8 -34%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $24 +$1 +3%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $15 −$1 -10%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $21 −$2 -8%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $2 $0 -14%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 $0 -5%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $2 +$1 +32%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 10 $12 +$1 +12%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $19 +$3 +15%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $38 +$3 +7%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 10 $7 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $25 $0 -2%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 06 $2 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 01 $26 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 01 $56 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 01 $73 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 01 $35 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $15 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $25 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $66 +$12 +19%
Valorant: QoR vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group May 28 $6 +$2 +36%
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? May 28 $14 +$28 +196%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $6 $0 +4%
Valorant: Division One vs Dynamo Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: St May 27 $10 −$5 -48%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North A May 27 $13 −$1 -10%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante May 26 $9 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $40 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $39 8h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 93¢ $17 35h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 95¢ $17 35h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Egypt 94¢ $5 38h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Egypt 94¢ $5 38h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Egypt 94¢ $2 38h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Egypt 93¢ $1 38h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Egypt 94¢ $4 38h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Egypt 93¢ $5 38h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Egypt 93¢ $0 38h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Egypt 93¢ $5 38h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Egypt 93¢ $0 38h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Egypt 93¢ $5 38h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Egypt 94¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? SELL No 99¢ $41 38h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? SELL No 99¢ $41 38h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 95¢ $35 38h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 88¢ $37 38h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY No 85¢ $36 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? SELL No 99¢ $27 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY No 88¢ $24 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? SELL No 99¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? SELL No 99¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY No 99¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY No 92¢ $24 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL No 93¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.45 · official $162.46 (match) · 1490 history records