Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x77a8…a196 sports 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$43 (+3%) realized +$50 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%30W / 39L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days+$115
14 days+$148
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$131
other 27% −$114
world 11% +$5
crypto 4% +$19
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +22.2% +10.6% 50% 50% +5.0%
≤30d 68 +11.0% +0.5% 44% 44% -5.3%
≤90d 69 +10.6% +0.1% 43% 43% -5.7%
all 69 +10.6% +0.1% 43% 43% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 43% -5.7%
10% -9.5% 41% -14.7%
15% -18.2% 41% -23.0%
20% -26.3% 41% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$12 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$50
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses30 / 39
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions12
Markets (closed)69 / 87
History coverage33d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Over 28¢ 30¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 42¢ 40¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 48¢ 60¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 37¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Over 35¢ 36¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+18%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 $0 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 +$19 +73%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $12 +$14 +119%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $11 $0 +2%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $21 −$21 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $22 −$21 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $12 +$9 +70%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $14 −$13 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$20 +99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 +$40 +262%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$6 +124%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $5 +$11 +206%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$20 +134%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$20 +97%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 16 $6 +$11 +177%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$11 +109%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $14 +$17 +123%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $13 +$18 +139%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $53 −$52 -98%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Pedri: 1+ assists Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 +$29 +114%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -13%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +262%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $41 +$35 +86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $62 +$68 +109%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $9 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 SELL Under 39¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $10 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 39¢ $30 6h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $26 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 19h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $12 20h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $10 20h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $21 31h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $22 31h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $11 31h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $19 31h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $11 46h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $14 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $12 46h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $13 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21 BUY $10 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $40 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $10 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.17 · official $167.19 · 145 history records