Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:11:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
77 0x77a8…a003 other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$699 (-34%) realized −$462 · open −$237
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$824
world 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.6% -5.4% 43% 43% -43.1%
≤30d 7 +4.6% -5.4% 43% 43% -43.1%
≤90d 7 +4.6% -5.4% 43% 43% -43.1%
all 7 +4.6% -5.4% 43% 43% -43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 43% -43.1%
10% -14.4% 43% -48.5%
15% -22.7% 29% -53.5%
20% -30.3% 29% -58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$246 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized−$462
Unrealized−$237
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)7 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $48 $51 +$3 (+6%)
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Belgium? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-99%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-99%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-99%)
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-99%)
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $50 −$31 -61%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $876 −$857 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $328 +$102 +31%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? Jun 24 $50 −$48 -96%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $50 −$48 -96%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $50 +$143 +286%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $200 +$153 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $100 1m
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Belgium? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 2m
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 4m
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? SELL Yes 5¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 6¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 9¢ $50 3h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 7h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? BUY Yes 6¢ $50 7h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 7¢ $50 7h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $876 27h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 47h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 47h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? SELL Yes 100¢ $193 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $328 47h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 55¢ $200 2d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.01 · official $212.81 · 21 history records