Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:11:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77a6…f21f politics 241 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%39W / 198L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$5
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$6
other 30% −$1
sports 10% +$1
crypto 6% $0
world 4% −$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 82 -0.3% -9.8% 4% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 169 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 237 -0.4% -9.9% 16% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses39 / 198
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)237 / 241
History coverage137d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $34 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $9 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $69 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 06 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $23 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $10 $0 -1%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $34 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 03 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $41 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $75 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 01 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $17 $0 -0%
Spread: Real Zaragoza (-1.5) Jun 01 $6 $0 +5%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 01 $37 $0 -1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $20 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $37 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 47m
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 3h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 4h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $7 5h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $6 6h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $7 9h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $6 9h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 10h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 11h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 77¢ $6 11h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $8 12h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 77¢ $6 19h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $9 20h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $9 23h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 24h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 25h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 25h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 26h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $10 27h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $8 7d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $6 7d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $6 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.04 · official $29.04 (match) · 1344 history records