Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77a4…1411 crypto 1191 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$384 (-7%) realized −$384 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate54%648W / 543L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$74
14 days−$74
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$439
sports 17% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 214 -15.5% -23.5% 53% 36% -18.9%
≤30d 313 -9.7% -18.3% 57% 37% -16.1%
≤90d 1011 -9.8% -18.4% 54% 38% -19.4%
all 1191 -7.7% -16.5% 54% 40% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 40% -17.7%
10% -24.4% 28% -25.6%
15% -31.7% 18% -32.8%
20% -38.4% 12% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$384
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses648 / 543
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1191 / 1191
History coverage144d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1191 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $46 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3163 history records