Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

77 0x77a4…9f0d other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$152 (+8%) realized +$101 · open +$51

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip

Net edge+8%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate56%5W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$133per market

Trades / day1.1pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$684now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$104

7 days+$126

14 days+$126

30 days+$3

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)+7.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+33.8%	+21.1%	62%	62%	+22.5%
≤30d	9	+18.9%	+7.6%	56%	56%	-8.9%
≤90d	9	+18.9%	+7.6%	56%	56%	-8.9%
all	9	+18.9%	+7.6%	56%	56%	-8.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+7.6%	56%	-8.9%
10%	-2.7%	56%	-17.6%
15%	-12.1%	56%	-25.6%
20%	-20.7%	56%	-32.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 49% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +19% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$50 vs −$62 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.01 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage

Net worth$684

Realized+$101

Unrealized+$51

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses5 / 4

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions6

Markets (closed)9 / 15

History coverage29d

Avg bet$133

Trades / day1.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$349	$360	+$10 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	11¢	$150	$192	+$42 (+28%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	67¢	66¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Portugal	52¢	52¢	$32	$32	−$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Over	53¢	52¢	$26	$26	−$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	No	32¢	32¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$25	+$39	+152%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$51	+$47	+92%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$25	−$25	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$51	+$43	+85%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$51	+$68	+133%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$51	+$55	+108%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 31	$123	−$123	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	32¢	$25	1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	53¢	$27	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$51	11h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	52¢	$32	17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	39¢	$25	21h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	53¢	$25	35h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	35h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$394	35h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$92	45h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$98	46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	53¢	$51	2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$52	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	42¢	$51	3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	81¢	$51	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$51	3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$165	4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$113	6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$179	7d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	44¢	$123	17d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$56	18d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$116	19d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$116	19d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	98¢	$170	20d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$98	20d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$132	20d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	98¢	$172	20d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	25d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$16	26d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$155	27d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $684.18 · official $684.18 (match) · 69 history records