Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77a4…8665 sports 22 markets active 7d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-4%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$17
other 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 50% -41.6%
≤30d 22 -0.7% -10.2% 55% 55% -15.6%
≤90d 22 -0.7% -10.2% 55% 55% -15.6%
all 22 -0.7% -10.2% 55% 55% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 55% -15.6%
10% -18.8% 55% -23.7%
15% -26.6% 50% -31.1%
20% -33.8% 50% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$18 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage4d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $45 −$45 -100%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $13 +$12 +91%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $24 +$14 +58%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $10 +$12 +116%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $6 +$6 +103%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $25 +$27 +107%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $20 +$11 +53%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $15 +$16 +107%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $10 +$8 +81%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $13 +$13 +95%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $30 +$17 +56%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $25 +$6 +24%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $13 +$12 +91%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen BUY Greet Minnen 59¢ $26 6d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Victoria Mboko 57¢ $15 6d
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Victoria Mboko 67¢ $30 6d
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 51¢ $13 6d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Iva Jovic 62¢ $24 7d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $10 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ $10 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 57¢ $10 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $10 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 48¢ $6 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 47¢ $25 7d
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 64¢ $20 7d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Otto Virtanen 51¢ $13 8d
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron BUY Roberto Bautista Agut 43¢ $13 8d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 47¢ $15 8d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 55¢ $13 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 9d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 54¢ $10 9d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins BUY Tampa Bay Rays 46¢ $15 9d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 50¢ $13 9d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Brendan Allen 63¢ $30 10d
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M BUY Iwo Baraniewski 80¢ $3 10d
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M BUY Iwo Baraniewski 79¢ $22 10d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $13 10d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 40¢ $14 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records