Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:49:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

77
0x77a1…dd4a
politics · 115 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$139 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$141 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 103
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage110d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 1 History 114 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Clippers 67¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Hornets Hornets 56¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Hornets Mavericks 15¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Heat Pistons 52¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Suns vs. Magic Suns 47¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Lakers Nuggets 58¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Suns Suns 83¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Raptors Raptors 44¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Lakers Wizards 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Mavericks 27¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Grizzlies 14¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $22 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $21 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $110 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $135 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $229 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $134 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $133 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $128 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $116 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $122 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $135 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $113 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $134 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $282 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $108 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $109 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $207 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $120 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $105 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $220 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $103 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 02 $96 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $94 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $125 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $105 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $118 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $131 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $117 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $221 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $96 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $99 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $113 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $102 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $97 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $96 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $86 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $91 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? Apr 16 $98 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $81 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $103 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $84 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 43% −$6
politics 39% −$7
sports 10% −$127
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 3d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 14d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $21 14d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $21 15d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $110 15d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 19d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $135 20d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $135 21d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $136 22d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $136 23d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $134 24d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $134 24d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $133 24d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $133 25d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 25d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 26d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $98 26d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $98 27d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $128 27d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $128 28d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $116 28d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $116 28d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 29d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 29d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $122 29d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $122 31d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $135 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 103 -4.0% -13.1% 8% 3% -9.9%
all 114 -8.0% -16.8% 10% 4% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 4% -10.5%
10% -24.7% 3% -19.1%
15% -32.0% 3% -26.9%
20% -38.7% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.99 · official $20.99 (match) · 297 history records