Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x77a1…de3d other 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 511d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$13,562 (+5%) realized +$14,257 · open −$695
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate44%57W / 74L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$1,822per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$6,474now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,035
7 days+$1,035
14 days+$804
30 days+$1,086
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% +$8,328
other 25% +$2,340
world 23% −$4,366
culture 18% +$7,061
sports 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$163
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +110.0% +90.0% 75% 75% +10.2%
≤30d 9 +53.4% +38.8% 56% 56% -1.6%
≤90d 28 +14.1% +3.2% 36% 32% -36.5%
all 131 +2.3% -7.4% 44% 31% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 31% -4.6%
10% -16.3% 21% -13.8%
15% -24.4% 15% -22.1%
20% -31.8% 8% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$2,123) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$789 vs −$420 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

511d coverage
Net worth$6,474
Realized+$14,257
Unrealized−$695
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses57 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions8
Markets (closed)131 / 147
History coverage511d
Avg bet$1,822
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 62¢ 46¢ $2,903 $2,189 −$714 (-25%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $1,936 $2,037 +$101 (+5%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 69¢ 66¢ $955 $920 −$35 (-4%)
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 52¢ 51¢ $700 $687 −$13 (-2%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $333 $311 −$22 (-7%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $250 $246 −$4 (-2%)
Will "The Odyssey" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be 120,000 voters or higher? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% Jun 17 $619 −$618 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $3,222 +$391 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $710 +$288 +40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $200 +$974 +487%
Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academ Jun 10 $61 −$4 -6%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 08 $2,006 −$357 -18%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 07 $1,000 +$130 +13%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 25 $4,034 −$12 -0%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $558 +$294 +53%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $160 +$27 +17%
Will Bulgaria win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $47 +$419 +890%
Will Finland be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,791 +$845 +47%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $2,759 −$2,119 -77%
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $1,516 −$502 -33%
Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $712 −$24 -3%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $1,000 +$84 +8%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $5,972 −$5,958 -100%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 13 $1,250 −$3 -0%
Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Mar 27 $420 −$420 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Mar 21 $1,000 −$4 -0%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 21 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Amy Madigan (Weapons) win Best Supporting Actress – Motion Pictur Mar 21 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Alexander Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 2026 BAFTA A Mar 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 21 $277 −$277 -100%
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 8 awards at the Oscars? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 21 $1,679 −$1,679 -100%
Will "Sinners" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars? Mar 21 $390 −$390 -100%
Will Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) win Best Actor – Drama at the 83r Mar 16 $66 +$26 +39%
Will Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You) win Best Actress – Musica Mar 16 $111 +$34 +31%
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $555 +$156 +28%
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 16 $2,506 +$635 +25%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $13,341 +$5,681 +43%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academ Mar 16 $1,205 +$184 +15%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Mar 16 $548 +$216 +39%
Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 16 $82 −$82 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Acad Mar 09 $800 +$3 +0%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 01 $3,098 −$424 -14%
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A Feb 22 $580 −$237 -41%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 22 $500 +$93 +18%
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Jan 22 $163 −$127 -78%
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award Jan 22 $650 −$611 -94%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 14 $500 −$337 -68%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Sep 29 $3,400 +$207 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Sep 29 $2,000 +$136 +7%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jun 06 $3,500 −$37 -1%
German government files appeal to ban AfD in 2025? Jun 06 $1,088 +$73 +7%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 06 $3,000 +$71 +2%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 06 $3,000 +$333 +11%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 29 $7,000 +$237 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) AND Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Moro BUY 8¢ $51 42m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 33¢ $71 48m
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% SELL No 0¢ $1 1h
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,645 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $949 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,174 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Wil BUY 11¢ $59 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $49 45h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Wil BUY 17¢ $53 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will United States BUY 10¢ $113 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 65¢ $67 3d
Will "The Odyssey" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy A BUY Yes 79¢ $41 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $222 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $505 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Germ BUY 54¢ $162 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $161 4d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY 62¢ $174 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $171 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $580 5d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $585 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $420 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academ SELL No 57¢ $57 7d
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $341 7d
Will "The Odyssey" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy A BUY Yes 71¢ $45 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $700 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $200 9d
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL Yes 77¢ $1,649 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $997 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,473.51 · official $6,651.34 · 641 history records