Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x779e…3ee2 other 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 225L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$26
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$33
sports 23% −$16
culture 9% −$10
politics 9% −$8
economics 7% −$6
crypto 6% $0
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 1% -9.7%
all 235 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)235 / 235
History coverage127d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 235 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $256 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $577 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $183 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $643 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $242 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $231 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $426 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $471 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $484 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $157 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $179 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $339 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $579 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $342 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $226 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $277 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $399 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $353 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $137 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $202 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $432 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $61 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $199 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $529 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $299 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $411 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 1h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 3h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 4h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 5h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 7h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 8h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 16h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 17h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 19h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 20h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 22h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 23h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 35h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 36h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 38h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 40h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 40h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 41h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 47h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 47h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $15 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $15 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1313 history records