Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:18:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x779a…b689 sports 562 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 114d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$22,545 (-3%) realized −$23,229 · open +$684
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate69%386W / 174L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,248per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$4,488est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$3,164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days−$2,740
14 days−$9,088
30 days−$20,134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$22,360
other 6% −$3,439
weather 0% −$71
culture 0% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -8.0% -16.7% 54% 46% -20.2%
≤30d 145 -9.8% -18.3% 56% 44% -19.2%
≤90d 523 -2.6% -11.9% 68% 45% -13.4%
all 560 +2.1% -7.7% 69% 46% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 46% -12.9%
10% -16.5% 26% -21.2%
15% ← realistic here -24.6% 16% -28.9%
20% -32.0% 9% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,714) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$629 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$3,164
Realized−$23,229
Unrealized+$684
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses386 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$4,488
Open positions2
Markets (closed)560 / 562
History coverage115d ⚠
Avg bet$1,248
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 560 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Minnesota Lynx 81¢ 98¢ $1,458 $1,765 +$307 (+21%)
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky New York Liberty 73¢ 100¢ $1,022 $1,399 +$377 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $361 −$339 -94%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $772 −$411 -53%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $665 +$104 +16%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $1,468 −$858 -58%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $1,040 −$72 -7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,368 +$229 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $904 +$466 +52%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $1,188 +$334 +28%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,124 +$72 +6%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $905 +$220 +24%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin Jun 16 $712 +$194 +27%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $588 +$123 +21%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $98 −$98 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $191 −$146 -76%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $151 +$44 +29%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $3,234 −$3,227 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $1,918 +$1,789 +93%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $499 +$300 +60%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 12 $825 −$825 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $688 +$139 +20%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $486 +$201 +41%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $455 +$32 +7%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $456 −$3 -0%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $426 −$5 -1%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $932 −$83 -9%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,601 −$945 -59%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 10 $1,016 −$1,016 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $1,370 −$335 -24%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Timofey Skatov Jun 09 $1,402 −$39 -3%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $1,402 −$3 -0%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $1,670 −$268 -16%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 09 $504 +$215 +43%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $46 +$4 +8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,017 −$1,001 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 09 $2,064 +$314 +15%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $500 −$479 -96%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $2,748 −$2,731 -99%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 06 $2,351 +$375 +16%
Makarska: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 06 $2,210 −$1,111 -50%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Petr Bar Biryukov Jun 06 $2,023 −$919 -45%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $503 −$104 -21%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $508 +$60 +12%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Alex Molcan Jun 06 $1,003 +$271 +27%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3,244 −$102 -3%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 06 $820 +$180 +22%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Maxim Mrva Jun 05 $1,000 +$250 +25%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $1,912 +$669 +35%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $2,776 +$1,651 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 81¢ $33 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 81¢ $85 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 81¢ $1,215 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 81¢ $8 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 81¢ $9 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 81¢ $109 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 73¢ $388 2h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 73¢ $146 2h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 73¢ $39 2h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 73¢ $135 2h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 73¢ $22 2h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 73¢ $15 2h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 73¢ $256 2h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 73¢ $22 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $23 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $23 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $361 11h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Hubert Hurkacz 37¢ $361 11h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 78¢ $772 13h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $769 13h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 86¢ $665 15h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman SELL Laslo Djere 36¢ $610 15h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 85¢ $1,134 16h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 85¢ $334 16h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla SELL Chun-Hsin Tseng 75¢ $968 17h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 80¢ $1,028 18h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 80¢ $12 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $1,597 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,368 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $904 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,164.17 · official $3,164.17 (match) · 3500 history records