Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

77 0x779a…9501 sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$148 (+62%) realized +$154 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +82% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +58% what you keep after slip

Net edge+58%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%8W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$26per market

Trades / day6.7pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+65.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+82.4%	+65.0%	100%	100%	+62.0%
≤30d	8	+82.4%	+65.0%	100%	100%	+62.0%
≤90d	8	+82.4%	+65.0%	100%	100%	+62.0%
all	8	+82.4%	+65.0%	100%	100%	+62.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+65.0%	100%	+62.0%
10%	+49.2%	100%	+46.5%
15%	+34.8%	100%	+32.3%
20%	+21.6%	88%	+19.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 43% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +79% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +82% · $-wt +79% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$18

Realized+$154

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses8 / 0

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage2d

Avg bet$26

Trades / day6.7

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	Over	40¢	30¢	$24	$18	−$6 (-26%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	Jun 20	$32	+$24	+75%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$41	+$21	+52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$15	+$17	+109%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5	Jun 18	$24	+$31	+127%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$43	+$41	+96%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$31	+$12	+40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$16	+$15	+93%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	+$7	+67%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	40¢	$25	14m
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	99¢	$56	50m
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	56¢	$32	2h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$62	6h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	65¢	$41	7h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$15	25h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5	SELL Over	24¢	$55	26h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5	BUY Over	10¢	$24	27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$85	29h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$43	31h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	71¢	$31	34h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$32	45h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$16	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$17	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$10	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.93 · official $17.93 (match) · 17 history records