Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:58:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x779a…5e89 weather 428 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,847 (+4%) realized +$4,856 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate89%381W / 45L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$459est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$991now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$118
14 days+$118
30 days+$2,377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$1,814
weather 45% −$426
world 3% +$2,874
other 2% +$122
crypto 1% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +9.1% -1.3% 100% 50% -0.7%
≤30d 23 +5.5% -4.5% 96% 17% +7.2%
≤90d 248 +2.7% -7.0% 86% 18% -5.3%
all 426 +2.0% -7.7% 89% 14% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 14% -6.5%
10% -16.5% 8% -15.5%
15% -24.6% 6% -23.6%
20% -32.0% 5% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$183 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$991
Realized+$4,856
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses381 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$459
Open positions2
Markets (closed)426 / 428
History coverage105d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 426 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? No 94¢ 94¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 0 Haiti? No 95¢ 94¢ $500 $494 −$6 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $501 +$25 +5%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $703 +$93 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $101 +$14 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$3 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $102 +$94 +92%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $853 −$853 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $5,003 +$101 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,000 +$2,874 +72%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $1,001 +$40 +4%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $2,021 −$683 -34%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $505 −$505 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $1,010 −$610 -60%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $1,105 +$36 +3%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Apr 29 $1,003 +$127 +13%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $1,003 +$27 +3%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $1,001 +$50 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on April 27? Apr 27 $189 +$11 +6%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $1,000 +$595 +60%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $100 +$123 +124%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Apr 26 $1,000 +$29 +3%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $1,100 −$83 -8%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $100 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April Apr 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $1,000 +$308 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Apri Apr 25 $36 −$19 -51%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $1,000 +$83 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on Apri Apr 24 $24 +$32 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on April Apr 24 $60 −$7 -11%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $800 +$217 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri Apr 22 $35 −$7 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Apr 22 $25 +$17 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Apri Apr 22 $20 −$6 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on Apri Apr 22 $130 −$26 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on Apri Apr 22 $20 −$13 -65%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $1,000 +$117 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 95¢ $501 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? BUY No 94¢ $501 1h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar? SELL No 100¢ $526 1h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY No 95¢ $501 3h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY No 88¢ $703 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 93¢ $115 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 81¢ $101 17d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $101 17d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $102 17d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $102 17d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $102 17d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $103 17d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $101 17d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $101 17d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $101 17d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 6? BUY No 97¢ $100 18d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 6? BUY No 98¢ $100 18d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 6? BUY No 98¢ $100 18d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 6? BUY No 98¢ $100 18d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $100 18d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $100 18d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 6? BUY No 98¢ $100 18d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $100 18d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 6? BUY No 96¢ $100 18d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $100 18d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $100 18d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 6? BUY No 98¢ $100 18d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 6? BUY No 98¢ $100 18d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 6? BUY No 98¢ $100 18d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 6? BUY No 97¢ $100 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $991.40 · official $990.34 (match) · 944 history records