Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7799…d511 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized +$2 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$39
14 days−$39
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$24
sports 31% +$49
tech 13% +$18
culture 8% −$65
crypto 3% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 +15.1% +4.1% 67% 67% -3.6%
≤90d 6 +15.1% +4.1% 67% 67% -3.6%
all 9 -9.2% -17.9% 56% 56% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 56% -9.6%
10% -25.7% 56% -18.3%
15% -32.9% 33% -26.2%
20% -39.5% 33% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$36 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)9 / 16
History coverage130d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the third highest private market valuation on June 30? Yes 82¢ 98¢ $93 $111 +$18 (+19%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $54 $49 −$5 (-10%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 60¢ 39¢ $46 $30 −$16 (-35%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $41 −$39 -94%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 01 $26 +$36 +134%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $50 +$17 +33%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? May 21 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? May 21 $23 +$15 +67%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 21 $100 +$56 +56%
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 28 $74 +$20 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $324.76 · official $324.76 (match) · 52 history records