Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x7797…1c4d crypto 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$745 (+10%) realized +$745 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate76%77W / 24L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$42
14 days+$130
30 days+$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$684
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -8.1% -16.8% 75% 50% -5.8%
≤30d 22 +4.1% -5.8% 77% 73% -1.6%
≤90d 48 -0.3% -9.8% 77% 71% -1.7%
all 101 +0.2% -9.4% 76% 73% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 73% -0.8%
10% -18.0% 50% -10.3%
15% -25.9% 13% -19.0%
20% -33.2% 5% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$25 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$745
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses77 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage184d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $543 +$46 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $274 +$58 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $101 −$101 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $102 +$39 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$23 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$13 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$27 +26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$30 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 07 $223 +$46 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $222 +$35 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 07 $222 +$35 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 06 $101 +$22 +22%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 31 $81 +$23 +28%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 31 $81 +$12 +14%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 30 $81 +$23 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 24 $81 +$16 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 23 $81 +$19 +23%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 17 $81 +$27 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 16 $181 +$16 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 16 $182 +$34 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 16 $183 +$43 +24%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 16 $82 −$80 -98%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 09 $81 +$19 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 08 $81 +$23 +28%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 03 $183 +$58 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 03 $34 −$34 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 02 $61 +$20 +33%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 26 $50 +$12 +25%
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 25 $50 +$12 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 19 $50 +$13 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 18 $1,000 +$71 +7%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 18 $50 −$50 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 18 $200 +$47 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 12 $50 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 11 $50 +$15 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 05 $50 +$15 +30%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 04 $50 +$13 +27%
XRP Up or Down - March 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 29 $40 +$10 +26%
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Mar 28 $40 +$9 +22%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 22 $30 +$9 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $271 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $272 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $274 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 12d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 13d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 14d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 14d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 14d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 15d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $223 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $222 19d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $222 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 19d
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 20d
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $81 26d
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $81 26d
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $81 27d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $81 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $81 34d
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $81 40d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $181 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 211 history records