Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:43:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
77 0x7796…4cd5 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$18 (+8%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +16.7% +5.6% 100% 75% +4.3%
≤30d 4 +16.7% +5.6% 100% 75% +4.3%
≤90d 4 +16.7% +5.6% 100% 75% +4.3%
all 4 +16.7% +5.6% 100% 75% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.6% 75% +4.3%
10% -4.5% 25% -5.7%
15% -13.8% 0% -14.8%
20% -22.2% 0% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage12d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 +$7 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 +$12 +30%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $71 +$10 +15%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 23 $61 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $41 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $41 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $71 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $61 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records