Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:53:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7795…08df crypto 733 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$381 (-5%) realized −$383 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate60%441W / 291L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day60.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$305
14 days−$306
30 days−$512
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$486
sports 11% −$40
other 4% −$8
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% +$24
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 240 -14.3% -22.5% 55% 24% -20.8%
≤30d 732 -7.4% -16.2% 60% 30% -15.6%
≤90d 732 -7.4% -16.2% 60% 30% -15.6%
all 732 -7.4% -16.2% 60% 30% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 30% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 21% -23.7%
15% -31.5% 17% -31.0%
20% -38.2% 14% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$383
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses441 / 291
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)732 / 733
History coverage28d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day60.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 732 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Henry Searle 54¢ 80¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +44%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +58%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $30 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -29%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle SELL Elias Ymer 18¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 2h
IR Iran leading at halftime? SELL No 73¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 7h
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL No 90¢ $8 12h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 36¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.36 · official $7.36 (match) · 2203 history records