Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:06:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
77 0x7795…9a17 sports 11 markets active 3h ago coverage 79d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$12,312 (+34%) realized +$11,631 · open +$681
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$3,324per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$363est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$6,474now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13,240
7 days+$13,240
14 days+$13,479
30 days+$13,479
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$10,876
other 26% +$3,045
world 2% +$239
crypto 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +21.5% +10.0% 67% 67% +30.7%
≤30d 7 +23.7% +11.9% 71% 71% +30.6%
≤90d 8 +24.4% +12.5% 75% 75% +30.5%
all 8 +24.4% +12.5% 75% 75% +30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.5% 75% +30.5%
10% ← realistic here +1.7% 75% +18.0%
15% -8.1% 62% +6.6%
20% -17.1% 38% -3.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3,324 vs −$3,221 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.1 per $1 lost it wins $3.1
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$6,474
Realized+$11,631
Unrealized+$681
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$363
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage79d
Avg bet$3,324
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 52¢ $3,211 $4,273 +$1,062 (+33%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $1,948 $1,776 −$172 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $633 $425 −$208 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $3,062 −$3,001 -98%
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $9,651 +$8,648 +90%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $5,053 +$6,375 +126%
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $5,206 +$2,294 +44%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $3,503 −$3,441 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3,404 +$2,364 +69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 21 $659 +$239 +36%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 27 $87 +$26 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3,061 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18,300 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $9,650 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11,429 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7,500 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5,053 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5,206 9h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3,503 9h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $3,286 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $3,404 2d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 26¢ $2,002 16d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $652 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $659 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? BUY Yes 76¢ $87 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,473.81 · official $6,473.81 (match) · 35 history records