Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7794…8df9 other 325 markets active 2h ago coverage 739d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$208 (+2%) realized +$182 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%95W / 212L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$429now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$499
sports 21% +$33
politics 14% −$8
crypto 5% −$384
economics 2% +$48
culture 2% −$70
tech 1% −$149
world 1% −$38
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -18.7% -26.4% 0% 0% -26.4%
≤30d 1 -18.7% -26.4% 0% 0% -26.4%
≤90d 9 +59.5% +44.3% 33% 33% -3.3%
all 307 -7.6% -16.4% 31% 29% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 29% -10.2%
10% -24.4% 29% -18.8%
15% -31.7% 28% -26.7%
20% -38.4% 28% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$24 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

739d coverage
Net worth$429
Realized+$182
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses95 / 212
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions18
Markets (closed)307 / 325
History coverage739d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $45 $66 +$21 (+48%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $40 $54 +$14 (+34%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $35 $49 +$14 (+40%)
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $35 $37 +$3 (+7%)
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $37 $34 −$3 (-7%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+15%)
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $24 $27 +$3 (+13%)
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+37%)
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-44%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $13 −$1 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-35%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes 35¢ 10¢ $14 $4 −$10 (-70%)
Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2026 NFC West? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $30 −$6 -19%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $16 +$68 +414%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $25 −$3 -14%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 18 $20 −$4 -19%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 04 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-1.5) Apr 04 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 03 $450 −$87 -19%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 01 $34 +$112 +328%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 01 $80 +$59 +74%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $29 −$6 -21%
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-9.5) Mar 21 $17 +$14 +84%
LIU Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 150.5 Mar 20 $10 +$7 +71%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-30.5) Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $8 −$1 -12%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Vanderbilt win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $25 −$25 -100%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Mar 18 $65 −$5 -8%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Gonzaga win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $20 −$20 -100%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Mar 02 $73 −$37 -51%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Mar 02 $20 +$19 +96%
Will Virginia win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February? Feb 22 $16 −$14 -90%
Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 22 $67 −$64 -96%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 13 $28 −$8 -27%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? Feb 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) Feb 09 $25 +$8 +33%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $166 +$188 +113%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Feb 04 $10 −$6 -64%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Jan 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 20 $5 −$1 -20%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 20 $23 −$14 -63%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 20 $74 +$47 +62%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 20 $41 +$93 +226%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 07 $57 −$6 -10%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 07 $35 −$13 -36%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $95 −$24 -25%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $20 −$8 -42%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $160 −$23 -14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 10 $21 −$16 -77%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Dec 10 $20 −$2 -12%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $15 −$7 -49%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $80 −$30 -38%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $10 −$6 -60%
Bears vs. Eagles Dec 01 $10 +$28 +285%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 2h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 2h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $24 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 13d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 13d
Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2026 NFC West? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 26d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 28d
Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2026 NFC West? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 28d
Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 28d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 44d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 19¢ $16 50d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 60d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $22 60d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 4¢ $25 71d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 6¢ $25 71d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 71d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 71d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 71d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 71d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $37 71d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 71d
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 79d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 5¢ $24 79d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 85d
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 7¢ $25 85d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $25 85d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 85d
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines BUY Arizona Wildcats 49¢ $50 85d
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-1.5) BUY Illinois Fighting Illini 52¢ $50 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $429.01 · official $429.10 (match) · 1080 history records