Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:33:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7793…2f6d sports 288 markets active 0h ago coverage 829d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized +$3 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate44%100W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$19
14 days−$2
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$40
other 35% −$32
politics 16% −$37
world 6% +$103
economics 3% −$1
finance 1% −$22
tech 1% +$7
crypto 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +16.9% +5.7% 57% 41% -2.8%
≤30d 188 +6.7% -3.5% 47% 32% -12.4%
≤90d 188 +6.7% -3.5% 47% 32% -12.4%
all 228 +3.5% -6.4% 44% 28% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 28% -10.7%
10% -15.4% 23% -19.3%
15% -23.5% 20% -27.1%
20% -31.0% 15% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

829d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses100 / 128
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions60
Markets (closed)228 / 288
History coverage829d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 60 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI 23¢ 28¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+20%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 62¢ 78¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+27%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 76¢ 86¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? Yes 75¢ 70¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-54%)
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 68¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Nick Fuentes arrested by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? No 77¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 52¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Another pandemic before GTA VI? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? No 77¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+14%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? No 74¢ 68¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 80¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 52¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 68¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 70¢ 67¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 45¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? No 62¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 64¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No 88¢ 84¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +47%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -42%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $13 −$2 -16%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $6 $0 -5%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $6 +$2 +38%
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +90%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $6 +$9 +142%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $6 +$7 +123%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $6 +$3 +56%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 13 $9 −$1 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -53%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $15 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $15 −$4 -25%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $22 +$2 +10%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 13 $6 $0 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -32%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -22%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +67%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +49%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 11 $4 $0 -4%
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +113%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 +$1 +101%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $8 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 +$2 +117%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$4 -75%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 50¢ $1 7m
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 42m
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 30¢ $1 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 75¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $1 1h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $3 3h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY No 21¢ $2 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 10¢ $1 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 85¢ $1 6h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 31¢ $3 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $0 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $4 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 74¢ $4 11h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $3 11h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $1 11h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 74¢ $1 11h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 43¢ $1 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $4 11h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $3 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 11h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $1 11h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.70 · official $161.48 (match) · 890 history records