Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:27:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7793…fb0f crypto 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$215 (-8%) realized −$214 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate65%66W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days−$96
14 days−$99
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$206
crypto 35% +$152
sports 21% −$88
finance 3% +$20
world 1% −$14
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -13.2% -21.4% 60% 60% -16.2%
≤30d 54 -0.6% -10.1% 59% 57% -15.7%
≤90d 54 -0.6% -10.1% 59% 57% -15.7%
all 102 -1.6% -11.0% 65% 50% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 50% -14.3%
10% -19.5% 38% -22.5%
15% -27.3% 32% -30.0%
20% -34.4% 21% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$23 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$214
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses66 / 36
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage132d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 13¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$80 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +30%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $301 −$300 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 +$118 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$44 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$4 +18%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $14 +$3 +18%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $7 +$4 +62%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $7 −$4 -50%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 09 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +33%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $12 +$10 +81%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $7 +$4 +62%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $12 −$12 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $6 +$5 +86%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $20 +$14 +69%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $19 −$19 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $30 +$9 +30%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 07 $6 +$6 +97%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $20 +$4 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 06 $17 −$17 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 06 $15 +$13 +85%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $12 +$12 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $15 −$15 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $10 +$8 +83%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 06 $20 +$17 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $12 $0 -2%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $25 +$7 +27%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $5 +$6 +114%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -97%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 02 $81 −$79 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $15 +$19 +125%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $281 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 13¢ $21 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $321 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $50 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 49¢ $20 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Philadelphia Phillies 100¢ $16 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.85 · official $38.85 (match) · 199 history records