Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:40:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
77 0x7792…c873 crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$51 (+12%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day75.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +45.3% +31.5% 47% 47% +6.1%
≤30d 36 +45.3% +31.5% 47% 47% +6.1%
≤90d 36 +45.3% +31.5% 47% 47% +6.1%
all 36 +45.3% +31.5% 47% 47% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +31.5% 47% +6.1%
10% ← realistic here +18.9% 44% -4.1%
15% +7.4% 42% -13.3%
20% -3.1% 25% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +123% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day75.0
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $13 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $84 +$16 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$4 +340%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $37 +$35 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$10 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records