Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:13:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x778c…4686 other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+2%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate32%24W / 50L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$8
other 32% +$20
politics 12% −$4
sports 10% +$6
crypto 5% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 15 +2.1% -7.6% 40% 13% -8.3%
≤90d 15 +2.1% -7.6% 40% 13% -8.3%
all 74 +1.5% -8.2% 32% 7% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 7% -7.4%
10% -17.0% 3% -16.3%
15% -25.0% 1% -24.4%
20% -32.4% 1% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.95 per $1 lost it wins $5.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses24 / 50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage307d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $53 −$1 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $23 −$1 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $54 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $41 +$7 +16%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $71 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $49 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 29 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $40 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $40 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 30 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 20 $1 $0 -14%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $2 $0 -1%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $27 +$19 +72%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 24 $49 $0 -0%
Washington vs. UCLA Nov 24 $21 +$6 +28%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $13 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Nov 18 $12 $0 +3%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $2 $0 +18%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 23 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $5 $0 -5%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Oct 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 06 $1 $0 +6%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 30 $7 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 28 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $53 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $53 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $1 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $42 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $5 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $48 34h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $3 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $20 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $23 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $18 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $33 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $21 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 100¢ $3 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $9 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $45 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $30 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $21 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $8 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $0 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes $2 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 35¢ $50 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 34¢ $49 25d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $48 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 400 history records