Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:09:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

77
0x7789…a2ce
other · 53 markets active 1d ago
1.0score
+$15,643 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15,485 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$15,485
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses30 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage236d
Avg bet$2,812
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 0 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12,722
7 days+$12,905
14 days+$12,586
30 days+$12,588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No 64¢ 0¢ $486 $0 −$486 (-100%)
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $387 $0 −$387 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Lighter Airdrop on December 27? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $237 $0 −$237 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? No 31¢ 0¢ $1,076 $0 −$1,076 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 27? No 3¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $348 $0 −$348 (-100%)
Lighter Airdrop on December 26? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 9PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $274 $0 −$274 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 28? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $2,289 +$196 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $81,579 +$11,627 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $9,334 +$899 +10%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 09 $265 +$183 +69%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 05 $2,417 −$319 -13%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $504 +$77 +15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Apr 28 $2,675 −$1,216 -46%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $109 +$11 +10%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $444 +$20 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 27? Mar 31 $140 −$140 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 31 $274 −$274 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 31 $3,795 +$794 +21%
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? Mar 25 $501 −$412 -82%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 25 $9,471 −$1,058 -11%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 25 $883 +$469 +53%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 24 $8,177 −$65 -1%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $2,872 +$1,902 +66%
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 20 $958 +$24 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jan 14 $640 −$484 -76%
Lighter FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 01 $3,000 +$63 +2%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Dec 30 $5,966 +$848 +14%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $399 +$2,006 +503%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 30 $910 +$335 +37%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Dec 30 $1,831 +$59 +3%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 29 $441 −$63 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 1PM ET Dec 29 $160 +$40 +25%
Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch? Dec 29 $348 −$348 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 12PM ET Dec 29 $160 +$40 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 11AM ET Dec 29 $160 +$40 +25%
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? Dec 29 $645 −$397 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 10AM ET Dec 29 $160 +$40 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 9AM ET Dec 29 $160 +$40 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 29? Dec 29 $13 −$10 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 8AM ET Dec 29 $160 +$40 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 7AM ET Dec 29 $160 +$40 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6AM ET Dec 29 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 11PM ET Dec 29 $72 +$68 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 10PM ET Dec 29 $160 +$40 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 9PM ET Dec 29 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 8PM ET Dec 29 $18 +$77 +428%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 5PM ET Dec 29 $44 +$54 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 6PM ET Dec 29 $160 +$40 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 28? Dec 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 27? Dec 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 27? Dec 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 27? Dec 27 $308 −$235 -76%
Lighter Airdrop on December 26? Dec 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Dec 20 $300 −$91 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 68% +$10,762
other 28% +$4,219
economics 2% +$60
crypto 1% +$183
sports 1% +$260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 99¢ $10 34h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 99¢ $170 34h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 99¢ $33,520 34h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 99¢ $14,351 34h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 75¢ $5,392 34h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 77¢ $845 34h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 99¢ $30 35h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 99¢ $4,000 35h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 39¢ $685 35h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 84¢ $78 35h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 84¢ $3,067 35h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $1,900 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $54 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $48 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $55 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $2 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $46 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $63 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $57 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $100 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $88 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $300 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $59 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $57 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $50 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $2,739 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $8 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $38 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $30 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 95¢ $38 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +25.4% +13.5% 100% 50% +3.0%
≤30d 8 -12.0% -20.4% 62% 38% +2.3%
≤90d 19 -17.7% -25.5% 53% 32% -0.2%
all 53 +0.4% -9.1% 57% 42% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 42% +0.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 34% -9.5%
15% -25.8% 17% -18.2%
20% -33.0% 15% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 777 history records