trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 50¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+40%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 12 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 11 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 09 | $95 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 08 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 08 | $91 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 07 | $96 | $0 | -0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | Jun 06 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $68 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Jul 01 | $17 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 07 | $17 | $0 | +3% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? | Jun 03 | $17 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 17 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 04 | $16 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? | Mar 30 | $13 | +$3 | +22% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? | Mar 26 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 22 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? | Mar 19 | $17 | −$4 | -24% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? | Mar 15 | $16 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on March 11? | Mar 13 | $15 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Friday? | Mar 11 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -0.0% | -9.6% | 25% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -0.0% | -9.6% | 25% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -0.0% | -9.6% | 25% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 21 | +1.3% | -8.3% | 62% | 5% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.3% | 5% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -17.1% | 0% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -25.1% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -32.5% | 0% | -33.1% |