Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:00:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x7781…3f50 other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-1%) realized −$82 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate83%34W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$509now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$39
14 days−$23
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% −$14
other 9% +$17
world 8% +$16
tech 1% −$40
economics 1% −$72
culture 1% +$7
weather 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -44.9% -50.1% 0% 0% -50.1%
≤30d 16 -0.9% -10.3% 75% 56% -11.3%
≤90d 41 +1.2% -8.4% 83% 46% -10.6%
all 41 +1.2% -8.4% 83% 46% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 46% -10.6%
10% -17.2% 10% -19.1%
15% -25.2% 0% -26.9%
20% -32.5% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$49 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$509
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses34 / 7
Open positions9
Markets (closed)41 / 50
History coverage86d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 81¢ 79¢ $89 $86 −$3 (-3%)
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? No 79¢ 94¢ $71 $84 +$13 (+18%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? No 86¢ 94¢ $60 $66 +$6 (+10%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 90¢ 94¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 88¢ 97¢ $52 $57 +$6 (+11%)
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 82¢ $60 $55 −$4 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $23 $23 −$1 (-3%)
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July? No 88¢ 98¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $87 −$39 -45%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $78 −$48 -61%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $87 +$26 +30%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 07 $76 +$19 +25%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $79 +$22 +28%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 05 $48 −$23 -48%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $66 +$18 +27%
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 03 $25 +$2 +9%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 02 $58 +$9 +16%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the May 31 $26 +$3 +13%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $84 +$18 +21%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between May 25 $28 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $51 +$7 +14%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 21 $58 −$41 -70%
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $32 +$7 +21%
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican prima May 18 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $38 +$6 +15%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $31 +$4 +14%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $58 +$8 +13%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $53 +$4 +8%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than May 02 $53 +$7 +12%
Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3? May 01 $57 +$3 +5%
Trump ballroom project unblocked by April 30? May 01 $52 +$2 +3%
Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30? Apr 30 $46 +$8 +18%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by April 30? Apr 30 $51 +$6 +11%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in April? Apr 30 $39 +$4 +11%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? Apr 29 $58 +$3 +5%
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026? Apr 29 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 28 $39 +$4 +11%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $6,682 −$87 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 27 $290 +$12 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $45 +$5 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $46 +$9 +19%
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? Apr 19 $72 −$72 -100%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 15 $49 +$3 +5%
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 14 $76 −$32 -42%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $49 +$7 +15%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 13 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $50 +$3 +5%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026? Apr 08 $51 +$4 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 40¢ $48 59m
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $9 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $27 2d
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $12 5d
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $41 8d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $52 8d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $13 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $23 9d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $60 9d
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $60 9d
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $6 9d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $8 9d
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July? BUY No 88¢ $15 9d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? BUY No 86¢ $60 9d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $0 9d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $17 9d
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi SELL No 99¢ $41 9d
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi SELL No 99¢ $52 9d
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi SELL No 99¢ $20 9d
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of SELL No 99¢ $33 9d
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of SELL No 99¢ $8 9d
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of SELL No 99¢ $50 9d
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of SELL No 99¢ $1 9d
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of SELL No 99¢ $4 9d
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 74¢ $29 10d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $30 10d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $7 10d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $64 10d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? SELL No 42¢ $25 11d
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 85¢ $60 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $508.62 · official $508.62 (match) · 213 history records