Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:33:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7781…37c4 weather 1165 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$7 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate76%868W / 274L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day59.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$15
14 days−$41
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -7.2% -16.0% 88% 4% -14.8%
≤30d 1034 -1.5% -10.9% 75% 46% -11.5%
≤90d 1142 -0.8% -10.3% 76% 47% -11.1%
all 1142 -0.8% -10.3% 76% 47% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 47% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 29% -19.6%
15% -26.7% 16% -27.4%
20% -33.9% 10% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses868 / 274
Open positions23
Markets (closed)1142 / 1165
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day59.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 1142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 17? No 90¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? No 91¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? No 90¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? No 96¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? No 91¢ 91¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? No 96¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17? No 97¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? No 96¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? No 91¢ 83¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 18? No 93¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 95¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on June Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 88°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 98-99°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 BUY No 97¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 BUY No 97¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 95¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 95¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.60 · official $38.52 (match) · 3500 history records