Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:01:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
77 0x7780…60b3 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% $0
other 22% +$1
sports 7% $0
politics 5% +$1
culture 5% +$4
weather 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.7%
all 21 +2.5% -7.2% 52% 5% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 5% -8.3%
10% -16.1% 5% -17.1%
15% -24.2% 0% -25.1%
20% -31.7% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.09 per $1 lost it wins $9.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage464d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $63 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jun 24 $11 +$4 +35%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 27 $7 $0 +1%
Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $12 $0 -2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $14 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $89,000 on March 14? Mar 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 67°F or higher on March 11? Mar 13 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $23 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $9 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $31 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $17 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $12 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $29 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $29 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $24 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $29 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $29 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $12 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $16 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $29 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $29 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $15 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $4 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $12 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $3 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $3 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.21 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records