Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:12:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x777e…47a2 other 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$11
politics 17% −$2
sports 7% −$4
economics 5% −$1
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 94 -4.3% -13.4% 9% 4% -9.7%
all 109 -3.3% -12.6% 8% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 5% -9.7%
10% -20.9% 5% -18.3%
15% -28.6% 5% -26.2%
20% -35.6% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×7.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 100
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage100d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $121 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $207 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $110 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $108 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $113 $0 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $9 +$8 +97%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $91 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $187 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $94 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $90 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $185 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $92 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $194 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 05 $191 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $88 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $88 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $90 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $89 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 27 $91 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $169 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $181 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $97 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $296 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $277 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $196 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $188 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $275 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $93 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $91 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $93 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $90 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $95 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $91 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 8h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 9h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $44 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 12d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 12d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $38 12d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $12 19d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $12 19d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 20d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 20d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 21d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 21d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 29d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 29d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $18 29d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $18 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 30d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $17 31d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 31d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $39 33d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $23 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.51 · official $82.51 (match) · 331 history records