Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:40:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x777e…d2d4 sports 1579 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 122d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$220 (-7%) realized −$220 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%900W / 675L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$7
14 days+$1
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$17
other 21% −$8
crypto 17% −$8
culture 1% +$11
world 0% +$6
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +32.7% +20.1% 53% 51% -5.3%
≤30d 208 -6.4% -15.3% 45% 44% -21.4%
≤90d 966 -2.5% -11.7% 50% 49% -11.9%
all 1575 -1.3% -10.7% 57% 50% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 50% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 45% -18.6%
15% -27.1% 39% -26.5%
20% -34.2% 31% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$220
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses900 / 675
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1575 / 1579
History coverage122d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1575 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 $0 -4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +59%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 +$3 +79%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$13 +1288%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 +$1 +48%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +57%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +79%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -78%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$2 -85%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 +$3 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$2 +83%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +16%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +84%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 $0 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +43%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 +$5 +468%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 $0 -5%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 11 $3 +$1 +33%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 +$2 +47%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $2 +$2 +97%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $2 +$1 +57%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $3 $0 -1%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $2 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 +$2 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $2 10h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 10h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 11h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $8 13h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 14h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 16h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 18h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 21h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Cabo Verde 66¢ $3 21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $1 21h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 64¢ $3 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $4 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 36h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 36h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $3 38h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 46h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $3 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 56¢ $3 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 2d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) SELL Spurs 13¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 92¢ $8 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 6¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.31 · official $7.31 (match) · 3500 history records