Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:04:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
77 0x777d…7a55 other 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 105L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$17
14 days−$18
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$29
politics 27% −$11
economics 9% −$2
sports 3% +$26
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 12% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 109 +3.0% -6.8% 11% 7% -9.6%
all 117 +2.8% -7.0% 10% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 7% -9.6%
10% -15.9% 7% -18.2%
15% -24.1% 7% -26.1%
20% -31.5% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)117 / 119
History coverage97d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $183 $184 +$1 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $87 $87 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $44 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $315 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $107 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $67 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $71 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $130 $0 +0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $295 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $321 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $298 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $299 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $312 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $299 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $295 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $298 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $306 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $317 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $320 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 28 $303 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 26 $315 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $298 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 24 $302 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $310 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $320 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $325 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $633 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 14m
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $87 3d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 3d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 4d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 4d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 5d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $17 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 7d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 99¢ $183 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 10d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 11d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $45 11d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $70 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $71 12d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 13d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 17d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 18d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 19d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $67 21d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 21d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 23d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 23d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.28 · official $270.28 (match) · 343 history records