Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:05:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
77 0x7776…be8d sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,168 (+10%) realized +$3,168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate66%23W / 12L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$837per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$418
7 days+$2,351
14 days+$2,351
30 days+$2,351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$2,768
other 16% +$2,267
crypto 2% −$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +34.2% +21.4% 75% 70% +12.5%
≤30d 20 +34.2% +21.4% 75% 70% +12.5%
≤90d 27 +19.3% +8.0% 67% 63% -0.1%
all 35 +15.4% +4.4% 66% 60% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 60% +5.7%
10% -5.6% 49% -4.4%
15% -14.7% 37% -13.6%
20% -23.1% 23% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$615) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$319 vs −$224 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.97 per $1 lost it wins $2.97
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses23 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 39
History coverage116d
Avg bet$837
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $615 +$151 +24%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $364 +$105 +29%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$23 +22%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $229 +$141 +62%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $302 +$322 +107%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $262 +$38 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$9 +34%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 AND Austra Jun 16 $2,961 +$1,104 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $184 −$184 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3,976 +$205 +5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $54 +$37 +69%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 +$69 +226%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $146 +$54 +37%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $69 +$31 +45%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $92 +$305 +331%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $71 −$71 -100%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Çaykur Rizespor: Both Teams to Score May 09 $670 +$330 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $1,455 −$1,455 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 12 $12 +$12 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 11 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 01 $240 −$240 -100%
Como 1907 vs. US Lecce: O/U 4.5 Mar 01 $474 −$474 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $1,282 +$2,121 +165%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? Mar 01 $725 +$6 +1%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 1.5 Feb 24 $7,636 +$1,132 +15%
Spread: Club Brugge KV (-1.5) Feb 24 $42 $0 +0%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Girona FC: O/U 4.5 Feb 24 $6,570 +$1,070 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 23 $84 +$16 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $765 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $112 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $252 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $252 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $470 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 49¢ $49 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $202 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $163 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 25h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY 48¢ $302 3d
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom SELL Titouan Droguet 100¢ $300 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY 61¢ $229 3d
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 87¢ $262 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 62¢ $30 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 95¢ $3,806 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 94¢ $170 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Over 99¢ $91 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $398 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $92 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $31 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $70 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 169 history records